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Invesco's Laing: No value left in defensive equities | Trustnet Skip to the content

Invesco's Laing: No value left in defensive equities

25 April 2013

Quantitative easing and the resulting inflation has caused investors to flock into steady, income-paying equities, creating bubble-like conditions in this area of the market.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Defensive equities are now trading on such "unjustifiably" high valuations that investors must turn towards cyclical stocks if they want to profit further from equities, according to Invesco Perpetual’s Simon Laing.

ALT_TAG Huge central bank stimulus along with a recovering US economy has caused global equity markets to rally in recent months.

According to FE Analytics, the S&P 500 has returned 18.39 per cent since the start of the year.

However Laing, who runs the Invesco Perpetual US Equity fund, says intervention from the Fed has meant that the more defensive names have driven the current rally, and that these are now overbought.

"Yes, the US equity market is up over 10 per cent this year, but it has been a very strange environment as it has actually been a bear market for cyclicals," he said.

"At the end of last year, we were nervous as to what the implications of the fiscal cliff would have on growth, so we looked to the more defensive areas of the market."

"However, while cyclicals have underperformed, I don’t think it has been for that reason."

"This is quantitative easing at work," he said.

"It is pushing investors out of bonds and into equities, but they are heading towards defensives and not cyclicals. It makes sense and it is a logical step to move from bonds into income-yielding defensive equities."

"However, we don’t hold consumer staples because we think valuations are now unjustifiable as investors have flocked to them due to the wall of money from the Fed," he said.

"Now cyclicals, particularly technology, look attractive. The long-term growth drivers are still there, though in the short-term this has been ignored by the market."

"We are seeing 2 to 3 per cent growth in the US, which may not be huge, but is still growth. Also, corporates are performing well. Valuations look good at a P/E ratio of 14x, particularly against other asset classes."

Invesco Perpetual US Equity holds 26.64 per cent in information technology, making it the fund's largest sector weighting. Laing counts the likes of Microsoft, Google and United Technologies as top-10 holdings.

Laing took over the £393m portfolio in June last year, having previously headed the North American equities team at Aberdeen.

His career running funds in the IMA universe spans back to March 2003. Over this time he has returned 130.43 per cent, while his peer group composite has made 113.84 per cent.

Performance of manager vs peers since Mar 2003

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

There have been concerns that the global financial system is overly reliant on central bank stimulus, meaning that when the added liquidity is removed, it could lead to another financial crash.

However FE Alpha Manager Martin Walker, who heads up the Invesco Perpetual UK Growth fund, thinks there is no chance the likes of the Fed, the Bank of England or the Bank of Japan will withdraw their quantitative easing measures over the next few years.

"I guess the first question is, why would they do that in the first place?" he said.

"The only reason central banks would stop their stimulus measures would be if they saw a sustainable growth trend, but that isn’t the case at the moment."

"We are years away from that so it is certainly not a concern in the short-term."

"If it were to happen, then you would be better off in pro-growth assets and nothing that was remotely bond-proxy. But as I said, it isn’t an issue at the moment," he added.

Laing believes that the outlook for the US is positive, however he feels political brinkmanship is acting as a drag on confidence.

"The fiscal negotiations have been off the front pages, but they are still there as a headwind. They have only pushed problems further down the road. I don’t think that will affect growth so much, but it will hinder confidence."

"Corporates now have balance sheets that are flushed with cash but in order for capital expenditure to happen, they need that confidence."

"We need to see a broad, bipartisan package over the US’s healthcare and social security policies."

"Obviously, they are pretty tough to put together and I think it is going to be messy – but the one thing I would say as a deadline gets closer is that Washington reacts well in a crisis."

"A scare in the short-term could well mean a longer term solution," he added.

Invesco Perpetual US Equity has an ongoing charges figure (OCF) of 1.67 per cent and requires a minimum investment of £500.

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