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Nervy investors causing prices to fall

15 June 2011

Markets appear to be overreacting to solvable short-term problems.

By Anthony Luzio,

Reporter, Financial Express

The fall in equity prices since the beginning of April is nothing to be worried about, according to Thomas Becket, chief investment officer at PSigma Investment Management.

"The economy is undergoing a mid-cycle slowdown similar to that experienced last summer, rather than anything more macabre," he said. "We would be surprised if we were witnessing the start of the next bear market."

Becket also believes that markets are overcorrecting at the first sign of bad news, such as unrest in the Middle East, and expects this to work to his advantage.

"In a world where investors’ psyches were negatively impacted during the financial crisis, any negative or ‘less good’ economic data is seized upon as an excuse to sell riskier assets," he explained.

"We are seemingly moving back to a stage where 'the greatest fear is fear itself'."

"Typically, when other investors start to become more nervous about financial markets, we become more interested, recognising that when panic sets in, opportunities are presented."

Becket is consistent in his strategy of holding his nerve in the face of trouble. In March, he told Trustnet his PSigma Balanced Managed fund would maintain its exposure to Japan after the country was hit by an earthquake and tsunami.

Data from Financial Express shows that the tactic paid off, with the fund quickly recovering from the short-term losses incurred since the disasters on 11 March.

Performance of fund and index over 6-months

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

The manager is reasonably optimistic on the outlook for equities going forwards, and has no plans to decrease his weighting, saying:

"The prices of ‘safe’ assets (cash, government bonds, index-linked and gold) are nowhere near attractive levels that would convince us that now is the time to start selling our equities and aggressively de-risking."

"We would not consider it a suitable use of our clients' capital to go chasing five-year government bonds yielding 1.5 to 2 per cent, even if on a five-minute view it is right to do so."

"This is particularly the case given that inflation in the UK is presently running at 5.2 per cent. In addition, when juxtaposed against stretched commodities and illiquid property, equities still seem very attractive."

"The important fact for equities and corporate credit remains that we expect resilient profits growth in the quarters ahead. We feel very comfortable with our current asset class."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.