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Ignore the flight to equities, says FE Alpha Manager Hitchin

01 February 2013

The head of the Marlborough Global Bond fund says there will be no sustainable recovery in markets until the extreme levels of debt in the West have been eradicated.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Investors are likely to be disappointed by the performance of their equity holdings for the next two decades, according to FE Alpha Manager Geoff Hitchin, who says they would be better off holding bonds instead.

ALT_TAG Hitchin, who has run Marlborough Global Bond since its launch in 1987 and therefore experienced numerous crises in the past, says no sustainable recovery in the markets will be seen until the high levels of debt are eradicated from the financial system.

A low-growth, low interest rate environment in the developed world just underlines the case for bonds, he explains.

"It’s an environment similar to that experienced by Japan over the last 20 years and from my perspective it makes bonds a better place to be than equities," he said.

"Investors will generally continue to receive the coupons and maturity values from bonds but if economies are not growing, then equities are likely to disappoint."

Although he says the economic outlook is poor, he thinks it still supports the case for taking on the extra risk in high-yield debt.

"I have been increasing my exposure to bonds at the lower end of investment grade or in some cases below investment grade, where yields of between 5.5 per cent and 9 per cent can look attractive when weighed against the risk they carry."

"Recent additions in that vein include Skipton Building Society, Rothschild, Investec, Vedanta, Dixons Retail and Provident Financial."

"My view is that levels of debt mean the developed world is likely to continue to stumble along but with little or no real growth," he added.

"There will be occasional setbacks but that is not necessarily to say they will be on the same scale as the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers."

Hitchin co-manages Marlborough Global Bond with Nicholas Cooling, who joined the team in 1998.

The £32m portfolio has beaten the IMA Global Bond sector – which is also the fund's benchmark – over one, three, five and 10 years.

However, Marlborough Global Bond has had a much higher volatility than the sector in each of those periods.

Performance of fund vs sector over 3yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

The fund has been a top-quartile performer over three years, with returns of 34.5 per cent, while the IMA Global Bond sector is up 20.55 per cent over the same period.

The manager also runs Marlborough Bond Income, Marlborough Cash and Marlborough UK Income and Growth.

There has been much debate recently that a "bond bubble" is appearing because investors have piled into the fixed income market for security. However, Hitchin is not convinced.

"Based in part on the Japanese experience and also on the repeated downward revision of growth forecasts, I believe there is no reason to expect interest rates will rise for what could be years."

"With governments and in many cases individuals indebted as they are, keeping interest rates very low is the main monetary policy lever they have to stimulate economic growth," he said.

"Since bond prices are inversely related to interest rates, which are unlikely to rise for some considerable time, I don’t believe the situation we are in can be described as a bubble."

Marlborough Global Bond’s largest weighting is in financials – with Hitchin and Cooling positioning 40.7 per cent of the portfolio in the sector.

Bonds from Deutsche Bank and AXA are among its top-10 holdings while the fund also holds 11.6 per cent in government bonds.

Marlborough Global Bond – which is yielding 4.5 per cent – requires a minimum investment of £1,000 and has a total expense ratio of 1.16 per cent.

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