Skip to the content

Why I’m preparing for a stock market pullback

30 October 2013

James Ind says that when the Fed eventually begins to reduce its QE programme, there will be a correction similar to the one seen this summer.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Investors should be very wary of buying equities in the current environment, according to GLG’s James Ind (pictured), who says valuations have far surpassed both earnings growth and expected economic data.

ALT_TAG Ind, who manages the GLG Total Return fund, is buying some option insurance against a correction, specifically option strategies that can profit from a fall in the S&P 500, which he thinks could lie ahead. He is long short-dated US Treasuries.

"In the equity market, there is not a lot of clear-cut value," he said. "You certainly can’t buy many equities on the basis that they look cheap."

One of Ind’s major concerns surrounding global equities is the implications of the Fed tapering its quantitative easing programme.

He points to the fact that while equities have performed very well recently, when tapering was first mentioned back in May the markets corrected heavily.

Performance of indices over 1yr


ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics


The manager is concerned that when QE is eventually tapered it is likely to have a similar effect.

However, because he feels the Fed is unlikely to change its current asset-purchasing programme until at least next summer, equity markets could be set up for an even greater fall when this happens.

"Market expectations have shifted a lot as to when QE might happen and that has been in part because of Janet Yellen, who has a strong record of being dovish and favouring loose monetary policy," he said.

"On top of that, there has been softer data coming out of the US, with issues such as the government shutdown and the debate over funding expected to contribute to slower growth."

"Some people thought they may taper QE in October, then that turned to December, then January and now the consensus is it won’t be until March. It is difficult to predict when, but I would say that QE will continue in its current form until the summer," he added.

He says this is likely to have a detrimental effect on equity investors as the excess liquidity in the financial system has artificially inflated some areas of the market.

"What will that mean? Well, it has historically been bullish for equities. There is a correlation between equities re-rating when the Fed expands its balance sheet. That said, it has usually been bullish from much lower equity valuation levels," he said.

"There has been very minimal earnings growth to justify the high valuations and there has also been soggy economic growth. Because of that, equity markets are beginning to get overstretched."

"I am wary of equity markets as I think they are due a correction. Instead you need to be building up protection and that is something I can do in my fund," he added.

Ind launched the GLG Total Return fund in July 2013. The fund has struggled since then, losing 1.78 per cent.

Performance of fund since July 2013

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics


However, the manager is confident that he can beat his LIBOR plus 5 per cent benchmark over any given rolling three-year period.

Ind also believes that his strategy of taking market-neutral positions is the best approach for risk-averse investors in the current market, as he expects bonds to be hit by the inevitable tapering of QE.

"The Fed has to be very careful as to how they manage it," he said.

"However, tapering doesn’t mean the end of QE, it means they will reduce the $85bn a month of stimulus. Tapering is one thing, but selling all the bonds they have on their balance sheet – which is $4trn – is different."

"You can’t sell those bonds without it having a negative impact on the market."

"It’s like my boss says: who is going to be stupid enough to buy the first $100bn worth when they know there is still a further $3.9trn still to come to the market?" he added.

He says that because of this, the Fed may be stuck with those bonds. Holding conventional bonds in this environment will also be difficult, he says, as he expects yields to continue on their upward trend.

"Bond yields don’t have to move very high before investors are hit by capital losses of 10 or 20 per cent," he said.

"If you were to lose 20 per cent as an equity investor, then that is a bear market, but usually they have a greater appetite for risk and can stomach the volatility to a certain extent. However, the risk tolerance is lower with traditional fixed income investors so that is certainly a risk," he added.

Ind’s GLG Total Return fund currently only has an institutional share classes, but retail investors can gain access to it via a number of fund platforms.

Editor's Picks

Loading...

Videos from BNY Mellon Investment Management

Loading...

Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.