The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a major turning point for the country, as several key issues dominate public debate. As in 2020, Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off on almost every issue, be it economic, societal, environmental or geopolitical.
But this time the dynamics have changed. The current president is facing criticism over the rising cost of living, the number-one concern of Americans.
Although disinflation has begun, the cost of living has risen by almost 25% in four years, mainly due to global factors (international production chains, energy and raw material prices), but the majority of voters see the Republican candidate as better placed to manage purchasing power issues.
So, with six months to go before the election, the latest polls show president Biden trailing Trump in the key swing states that Biden had previously won in the 2020 elections.
Admittedly, the election is far from a foregone conclusion, not least because the winner-takes-all system allows candidates to win all the major electors, even if the state is well divided between the two candidates overall.
In 2016, Trump won by just a few thousand votes in Michigan, a Democratic stronghold at the time. One of the reasons had been abstention, which, after the record turnout of 2020, could climb again in 2024.
This trend is fueled by the desire of American Muslims to protest against Biden's “immutable” support for Israel, but also by a certain weariness with the American electoral landscape.
At the same time, although he remains popular with voters on social and health issues, Biden is losing ground with Hispanic, black and Asian demographics, which make up around a third of the electorate and are traditionally Democratic.
Thus, the third candidate, usually relegated to the background, this time occupies an increasingly important place in the polls. Robert Kennedy, whose anti-establishment and controversial ideas are close to those of Trump, but whose ecological and liberal rhetoric leans more towards Biden, could therefore steal votes from both candidates. Several other factors, such as Biden's health, Trump's controversial statements and even his conviction, could influence the final result.
Ideologically, the two candidates present diametrically opposed visions, which are also reflected in the concerns of the electorate. While Democrats fear the rise of fascism/totalitarianism and extremism, Republicans fear the loss of the country's historic values and a progressive decline.
Immigration, seen as a source of insecurity and unemployment by Trump, is seen by Biden as an opportunity for diversity and economic growth, and should therefore occupy a prominent place.
The healthcare system will also be at the heart of the campaign, with voters divided between reducing the role of government and expanding federal programs such as Medicare.
Through the prism of protectionism, the Republican candidate is also expected to focus on geopolitical issues and America's international relations, particularly with China and Russia.
Finally, Biden will have to address the difficult transition to renewable energies, while taking into account the potential impact on the traditional energy industry, while Trump maintains climate-skeptic positions.
In addition, social and civic issues will be omnipresent, particularly through some major points of disagreement that illustrate the country's strong polarization: LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights and gun legislation.
Overall, the future leader's decisions could have profound implications for the country's social fabric.
Christophe Boucher is chief investment officer and Benoit Begoc is a Quantitative Strategist ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. The views expressed above should not be taken as investment advice.