The US presidential election has so far only promised economic uncertainty, giving international bond investors little comfort for the long-term outlook.
This begs the question of whether US treasuries are in danger of becoming uninvestable.
One thing is for certain: US treasuries have a risk premium attached. The US is the highest yielding G7 government bond market after the UK, with 1% extra yield than Canada. That’s what happens when you have a debt-to-GDP ratio that makes the Italians look fiscally conservative.
But with little policy certainty and at least one presidential candidate who has threatened to upend established fiscal institutions, there an argument brewing that investors should avoid US treasuries.
Politicians and strategists alike will tell you how important Uncle Sam is to the global economy, given the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Protectionist, inflationary policies are a good way to threaten that position, not least when elected representatives espouse Bitcoin investment as the best hope for deficit reduction.
American politicians and American voters need to tread carefully – there are increasing alternatives for global investors.
US treasuries may have been the cornerstone in global bond portfolios for decades, however if their risk/reward profile diminishes, investors no longer need to own any US assets.
Longer term, I believe in the power of fiscal and monetary policy working in tandem to deliver growth. Shorter term, politics can spook markets, as evidenced by Liz Truss’ unfunded budget in the UK. More recently in France, rising debt and decade-high borrowing costs led to political volatility.
The same thing is happening on the other side of the Atlantic. Since Joe Biden’s poor performance in his debate against Donald Trump in June, long-dated bonds have plunged in value relative to short-dated ones. Few investors want to risk lending long to the US. Understandably so.
Shorter-dated bonds seem okay for now, with the Federal Reserve set to continue cutting rates. I currently own no US dollar bonds with maturities longer than seven years.
And it’s not just pure economics that worries investors. At least one leading candidate seems seriously to be considering removing the independence of the central bank, sacking the head of the financial regulator, introducing restrictive trade practices and maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio above 125%
The Nedgroup Investments Global Strategic Bond fund is underweight the US bond market and closer to the election, I may go further – possibly to zero or, whisper it… short!
I’ve started selling down the US, shortening interest rate exposure. Canada may be too expensive, but from Germany to Australia there are value-driven reasons to diversify away from the US market, quite apart from the political rationale.
A few years ago, Chinese sovereign debt was included in global bond indices for the first time. Today, China’s bonds represent a high-single-digits portion of the global market. At the moment, it’s a step too far for many global bond managers, me included.
Some investors already do buy China of course. The US needs to be careful. International capital is finite. The more reasons investors are given to look elsewhere, the less money flows to Washington.
Otherwise, the US government’s borrowing costs will rise further and with a $2trn and rising deficit, higher interest costs are not what the American public needs to see.
David Roberts is co-portfolio manager of the Nedgroup Investments Global Strategic Bond fund. The views expressed above should not be taken as investment advice.