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Investec makes case for African investment | Trustnet Skip to the content

Investec makes case for African investment

18 May 2011

Sweeping political reforms in the last 20 years have resulted in the continent holding six of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world.

By Joshua Ausden,

Reporter, Financial Express

The impact of the Middle Eastern crisis will benefit investment in Africa in the long-term, according to Roelof Horne, manager of Investec Africa and Middle East.

Horne believes the biggest driver of African growth in the last decade has been the improvement of political conditions throughout the continent.

"Problems we’re seeing in Libya and Egypt are part of a much wider trend that has been going on for some time now," he said.

"It has been a really tough time for African investment of late, but the installation of democratic government is always a positive move in the long-term."

Horne thinks Africa reached an inflexion point in the late 1980s, when the political situation was at its worst.

He commented: "In 1988, 80 per cent of African countries were either a one-party state or a dictatorship. Today, 80 per cent are democratically run."

"I’d be the first to admit that democracy is working in some countries much better than others, but this is definitely a step in the right direction."

"There has been a huge change in the way governments interact with the electorate. They are more accountable for their decisions, and as a result financial matters are being dealt with far better."

Horne accepts that volatility goes hand-in-hand with African investment, which is reflected in his fund’s performance since it was launched in June 2008.

According to Financial Express data, Investec Africa and Middle East has returned 15.27 per cent since inception, but has lost around 9 per cent since the beginning of the year.

Performance of fund over 3-yrs


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Source: Financial Express Analytics

The fund has no exposure to Libya, but continues to invest in Egypt, which makes up 5.7 per cent of the portfolio.

Despite the short-term risks involved, the manager thinks positive fundamentals as well as ongoing democratic reform bodes well for Africa in the long-term.

Chris Derksen, head of frontier markets at Investec, commented: "Africa makes up 14 per cent of the world’s population, but only 3 per cent of world GDP. This percentage of GDP had been getting smaller and smaller up until the early 1990s, but now it is on the up and should be 4 per cent before long."

"Of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world, six are African. Many argue that the commodities boom is responsible for this, but most of the growth we are seeing is secular, not cyclical. Only eight of the 54 countries in Africa are oil producers."

"It is the African consumer that is driving growth. The number of people who have discretionary spending power is increasing rapidly. The penetration of mobile technology, for example, has been a huge contributor to growth."

Horne understands why retail investors are wary of investing in such a volatile market, but stresses that some funds are far better equipped to deal with the risks involved than others.

"Not everyone who invests in Africa will be a winner," he said. "There is a huge information barrier throughout the continent, which makes investment very difficult."

"It’s more difficult than people think to get exposure to their economic growth. Some studies suggest there is actually a negative relationship between the African stock markets and MSCI growth, which shows how important it is to pick the right stocks."

"You can’t sit in London and make judgements on specific companies – you need researchers on the ground and visiting chief executives, which is something that we offer."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.