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Harris: The gold price can only go down from here

19 February 2013

The City Financial manager completely sold out of the precious metal when he took over four multi-asset portfolios this year, but says he will buy back in if it reaches $1,500.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Gold investors are destined for heavy losses in the short-term, according to fund manager Mark Harris (pictured), who says he is waiting for a buying opportunity.

ALT_TAG Harris, who began running four multi-asset portfolios at City Financial earlier this year, says he sold completely out of gold holdings in the funds as soon as he took them over.

Although he says investors should not write off gold all together in the long-run, he adds they would be unwise to buy into the precious metal until its price drops to $1,500.

"I don’t hold any gold at the moment across the portfolios," he explained.

"I originally started buying gold back in 2002 when Gordon Brown – who was chancellor at the time – was selling it. We had a good 10 years of gains and it was all going one way. However, we are now in a correction phase."

Performance of indices over 10yrs

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Source: FE Analytics


"The dollar is strong and the US economy is doing OK, which are two challenges for the gold price."

"I don’t think the gold price is going anywhere but down in the short-term, as traders are starting to sell, plus there is general pessimism surrounding gold miners."

"However, I will re-focus my options at some stage as I think after this correction phase there will be a parabolic period where the gold price soars – who knows how long that will be?"

"If it drops to $1,500 than I would certainly have a look again."

At the time of writing, the gold price is $1,613.30.

With sentiment towards global equity markets on the increase and inflation staying at relatively low levels, Harris says gold is likely to be an out-of-favour asset for quite some time.

"The perception surrounding gold is not good at the moment," he continued. "Some believe that there has been a perceived reduced risk in the markets – if that’s what they want to believe, then fine."

"However, there is no real inflationary environment which people have suggested might happen, so people will continue to turn away from real assets."

Harris has run City Financial Diversified, City Financial Dynamic, City Financial Multimanager Income and City Financial Multimanager Growth since 1 January 2013.

His career in fund management spans back to 2002, having previously ran multi-asset funds at New Star and Henderson Global Investors.

Performance of manager vs peers over 10yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

According to FE Analytics, Harris has returned 128.25 per cent over the last decade, underperforming his peer group composite.

Like many of his colleagues at New Star – which has since been bought by Henderson – Harris was hit hard during the crash of 2008. His track record prior to the crash does make for better reading, though.

In the first half of the last decade Harris returned 116.77 per cent, while his peers returned 94.8 per cent.

When Harries does turn his attention back to gold in the future, he says he will go for direct exposure to the precious metal via an exchange traded fund (ETF).

He commented: "You’d be better buying an ETF instead of going for a gold mining fund."

"Gold production has been lower than expected and you get the feeling that these companies could have been run a little better – as shown by the labour-cost issues in South Africa."

"None of these companies are paying dividends and until they do the miners can only do well if there is both a rally in equities and in gold."

All four of Harris’ portfolio are funds of funds and require a minimum investment of £1,000. The total expense ratios (TERs) of the funds range from 1.75 per cent to 2.51 per cent.

ALT_TAG Angelos Damaskos (pictured), manager of the £16.1m MFM Junior Gold fund, says the gold price has been in decline because of the improving macroeconomic outlook.

However, he expects an inevitable correction will "spook the market, encouraging investors to turn to gold as the ultimate safe haven".

He added: "According to the latest figures from the World Gold Council, demand for gold is at an all-time high and should economic events take a disappointing turn, causing a flight back to gold, demand levels could exceed supply."

"The increased demand could coincide with supply of the metal falling as a result of miners’ newly implemented cost-control strategies, hence creating a global supply crunch."

"This scenario is a recipe for the gold price to reach highs, potentially of as much as $2,000," he added.

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