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Equity rally to get second wind, says Skandia | Trustnet Skip to the content

Equity rally to get second wind, says Skandia

13 April 2012

The group’s chief executive believes fundamentals remain solid and blames the recent correction on short-term trading.

By Joshua Ausden,

News Editor, FE Trustnet

Equity markets are set to rally again once profit-taking comes to an end, according to Skandia Investment Group’s James Millard.

There has been a recent dip in equity prices after a strong start to the year, but the chief executive thinks the pull-back will be short-lived.

"Economic data has become less positive while the improvement in the peripheral bond markets appears to have stalled," said Millard. "As a result of this a bout of profit-taking could take place in the near-term."

"Nonetheless, we think that ongoing economic growth, low interest rates, favourable valuations and an improvement in the eurozone debt crisis will lead to higher equities over the rest of 2012, despite their already record performance in the first quarter."

The FTSE and S&P 500 were up 7.5 and 10.5 per cent respectively for the year by mid-March, but in recent weeks returns have tailed off.

Performance of indices in 2012

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Source: FE Analytics

As a group, Skandia has marginally reduced its exposure to equities recently, but only due to fears that profit-takers will take the edge off the market in the short-term.

In terms of fundamentals, Millard remains upbeat and is unfazed by rising Spanish and Italian bond yields. He also expects the UK to avoid recession.

Skandia’s biggest preference at the moment, however, is in emerging Asia. Millard is particularly positive on China, which he believes will avoid a hard landing, and also has a big overweight in investment-grade corporate bonds.

"The corporate sector remains highly profitable, generating a large amount of cash," he said. "The US corporate sector has the highest level of cash as a percentage of total assets than for any time over the past 50 years."

"While non-government bonds have rallied significantly over the last few years, they could rally further," he added.

Millard’s comments echo those of BlackRock’s Bob Doll, who said earlier this week that fundamentals haven’t deteriorated enough to warrant a significant market correction. However, FE Alpha Manager Iain Stewart remains sceptical, urging investors not to jump on the bandwagon.

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